日韩精品久久一区二区三区_亚洲色图p_亚洲综合在线最大成人_国产中出在线观看_日韩免费_亚洲综合在线一区

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
World
Home / World / Americas

Could tariffs lead to?'Thucydides Trap'?

By ZHANG RUINAN in Boston | China Daily USA | Updated: 2018-07-19 22:01
Share
Share - WeChat
Graham Allison, professor at Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School in his office during an interview with China Daily on Tuesday in Boston. Gao Tianpei/ China Daily

The trade conflict heating up between China and the US can be dangerous, leading the two nations to slip into a "Thucydides Trap", Harvard professor Graham Allison said in an interview with China Daily on Tuesday.

To avoid it, the two nations should first recognize how dangerous falling into the trap might be and then find a new form of great-power relations to avoid it, said the author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2015).

Allison said a tariff war between the world's largest economy and its next largest could do serious damage to both. But economic damage from a trade war is not the most significant risk posed by current trends, he said.

In his book he coined the catchphrase "Thucydides Trap", which is the notion that when a rising power challenges an established one, conflict may ensue.

He outlines that in the past 500 years, there were 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to topple a ruling power from its position of predominance. Twelve of those cases led to war.

"In this process of tit-for-tat, (trade conflicts) could escalate into more and more dangerous territory," Allison said, explaining that in the lens of this dynamic, misperceptions are magnified, miscalculations multiplied and risks of escalation amplified.

"If we study history, the case of Japan, which was rising in the 1930s, rivaling the US, which was the predominant power in the western Pacific and maintained an open-door policy," said Allison.

"As Japan grew stronger, the US said no, you have to stop this expansion. So initially, the US imposed economic tariffs, and then an embargo on exports of high-grade scrap iron and aviation fuel to Japan. And finally, in 1940, an embargo on oil, which the Japanese believed would strangle them slowly," Allison said.

"Under those conditions, they concluded that it was better to attack America.

"So, I'm really worried about the trade conflict, for the way that it could be escalated as well as the economic impact in the meantime," he said. "But even worse than the economic impact would be if it should become part of the fuel that produces fire."

Allison said that over the past four decades, the US viewed China as a "partner" or "strategic partner."

But the Trump administration and Washington now publicly call China a "strategic rival" or "adversary", which shows a fundamental shift in the way Washington thinks about China and how the US should relate to it.

"That (shift) in this Thucydides dynamic, makes it even more dangerous," Allison said.

"In this dynamic, we should ask the question President Xi asked, which is how to escape the 'Thucydides Trap', that's the right question to ask," Allison said.

"The first step to escaping the 'Thucydides Trap' is to recognize the trap and how dangerous it is if we slip into the trap," Allison suggested.

"Then secondly, is how can we find a way to escape the trap; President Xi's idea is we should have a new form of great-power relations, I think this is a great idea.

"Now we have to construct all the elements of the new form," Allison said.

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
主站蜘蛛池模板: 99影视| 午夜小视频免费观看 | 成年视频在线观看免费 | 91精品久久久久久久久久入口 | 91看大片| 久久国产亚洲 | 欧美午夜视频 | 奇米奇米777| 午夜深夜福利网址 | 日韩app | 久久精品伊人 | 成年视频免费观看 | 一区二区三区毛片 | 天天舔天天舔 | 成人无码T髙潮喷水A片小说 | 国产精品福利片免费看 | 精品久久久久国产免费 | 99热在这里只有精品 | 久久99国产精品视频 | 一本大道久久a久久精二百 日韩三级中文 | 国产人成精品一区二区三 | 日本中文字幕在线视频 | 欧美日韩后 | 欧美三级在线播放 | 日本道二区视频 | 91爱爱| 色偷偷精品视频在线播放放 | 亚洲日本久久久午夜精品 | 国产精品久久久久久吹潮 | 日本香港三级和澳门三级 | 91久久亚洲精品一区二区 | 亚洲一区中文字幕 | 亚洲一区二区三区在线视频 | 欧美在线一级片 | 欧美日韩一区二区在线视频 | 日本三级韩国三级欧美三级 | 免费国产一级特黄久久 | 九九综合视频 | 在线视频三级 | 亚洲免费视频网 | 在线播放一区二区三区 |