日韩精品久久一区二区三区_亚洲色图p_亚洲综合在线最大成人_国产中出在线观看_日韩免费_亚洲综合在线一区

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Opinion
Home / Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Industrial relocation won't curb growth

By Liao Qun | China Daily | Updated: 2019-07-16 07:46
Share
Share - WeChat
A worker takes notes at a copper foil manufacturing base in Jiujiang Economic-Technological Development Zone, East China’s Jiangxi province, Jan 19, 2019. [Photo/IC]

The relocation of some manufacturing enterprises from China to overseas destinations in the past years has raised market concerns, especially due to the trade tensions between the US and China. Indeed, if manufacturing enterprises relocate abroad in large numbers, China's manufacturing sector could suffer a serious blow, which in turn could deprive China of a driver of economic growth.

Such concerns are understandable. But the speed or scope of the relocation of manufacturing enterprises from China to other regions is not fast or large enough to feel pessimistic about the future of China's economy. Besides, after the middle-and low-end manufacturing enterprises shift abroad, some high-end ones will take their place. And often the slowdown in manufacturing growth is usually followed by the accelerated growth of the service sector.

'Sixth industrial migration' in progress

Equally important, the relocation of manufacturing enterprises is not only the rule of global economic development, but also the driving force of global growth and the engine of economic upgrading. There have been five large-scale global industrial relocations in modern economic history. The current relocation of some manufacturing industries from China to some Southeast and South Asian, even African countries can be regarded as the "sixth industrial migration".

On the one hand, judging by global industrial development history, the relocation of some manufacturing industries from China to overseas destinations is inevitable given the extent of China's development. On the other hand, this phenomenon does not mean China will lose its manufacturing and economic power.

During the previous five industrial migrations, the economic development of the leading countries that hosted such industries didn't stop after some of the traditional sectors relocated to other countries. Instead, they soon saw the rise of new industries, high-end manufacturing and the service sector-and they are still developed economies. For example, the US is still the world's largest economy even 60 years after the third industrial migration, while Japan, Germany and Britain are ranked among the top seven economies in terms of size and quality even decades after the industrial migration.

Relocation speed and scope not alarming

As a country with the world's largest population, the third-largest territory, and the longest continuous economic growth curve, China's case will be the same even after the relocation of some of its manufacturing industries.

First, as mentioned above, the speed and scope of the manufacturing units' relocation from China are not as fast and large as some people imagine. The industrial relocation from China started after the 2008 global financial crisis broke out, accelerated in 2012, and gained pace last year due to the Sino-US trade conflicts.

But the consequences are not expected to be very serious. For instance, from 2008 to 2018, global trade grew at an annual average rate of 2.4 percent, while China saw 6.3 percent annual average export growth, which shows China's export growth has been not only steady, but also 3.9 percentage points higher than that of global trade.

As a result, the share of China's exports in global exports rose from 8.9 percent in 2008 to 12.9 percent in 2018, an increase of 4 percentage points. Which is a clear indication that the relocation of manufacturing industries from China is not fast enough to make us feel worried.

Second, the rapid rise of emerging manufacturing industries in China will to a large extent offset the impact of the relocation of low-end industries on its entire manufacturing industry and economy. Therefore, China will continue to be a manufacturing and economic powerhouse.

For example, the booming development of eight major emerging industries of strategic importance-new generation information technology, energy saving, environmental protection, biology, high-end equipment, new materials, new energy and new-energy vehicles-will play a role that traditional middle-and low-end industries such as clothing and shoes, and furniture making could not play in driving China's growth and boosting its manufacturing and economic power.

Third, China's service sector has been growing rapidly-at an average annual nominal growth rate of 13.1 percent over the past decade-outpacing industrial growth by 4.3 percentage points. Despite that, the service sector's share of GDP is just over 50 percent, still lower than the 70-80 percent in developed countries, indicating it has huge potential for further growth.

Moreover, the continuous improvement of consumer services and the dynamic rise of producer services in China will largely offset the impact of the slowdown in its manufacturing growth, and thus help the country to become a modern economic powerhouse with strong manufacturing and service sectors.

The author is chief economist of China CITIC Bank International and director of China Chief Economist Forum. The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产人妻互换一区二区水牛影视 | 夜夜艹日日艹 | 中文字幕在线观看视频一区 | 日本黄页网址 | 欧美2区 | 日本无码欧美激情在线视频 | www.中文字幕| 蜜桃日本免费MV免费播放 | 精品日韩视频 | 成人久久18免费软件 | 久久免费看少妇高潮A片特黄多 | 国产福利网 | 欧美视频在线免费播放 | 91精品一区二区综合在线 | 免费视频精品一区二区 | 亚洲第一区精品观看 | 欧美黑人疯狂性受xxxxx喷水 | 毛片网站大全 | 日韩欧美福利视频 | 久久亚洲美女 | 亚洲精品国产成人无码区A片 | 一区二区三区四区精品 | 亚洲色图第四页 | 91精品国产乱码久久久久久久久 | 国产精品久久久久久喷浆 | 欧美鲁 | 欧美一级全黄 | 啪啪av | 九九视频这里只有精品99 | 国产精品国产三级国产专区5o | 91免费视频 | √新版天堂资源在线资源 | 超鹏97国语| av在线网站观看 | 精品久久久久久久久久 | 色两性午夜视频免费观看 | 不卡国产一区二区三区四区 | 中文字幕av网 | 九九久久精品 | 懂色中文一区二区三区在线视频 | 精品视频国产 |