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Experts voice optimism for economic recovery

By Andrew Moody | China Daily | Updated: 2020-03-09 09:11
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Construction of the Dongshaoxi Bridge in Deqing, Zhejiang province, nears completion on Feb 28. [Photo by Wang Zheng/For China Daily]

"If China stays the course with these (factors) while maintaining focus on the current deleveraging campaign in an effort to avoid a Japanese-style debt problem, its twin centenary goals remain achievable in my view," he said.

Zakic said, "Most of the planned goals are very close to being achieved, so even in a case where they are somehow narrowly not reached, it should not be considered a failure."

She said it is important to recognize the "distance the country has traveled" since the formation of the People's Republic of China in 1949.

"If we look upon extreme poverty before the establishment of the PRC, and then the advancement after reform and opening-up (in 1978) to what we have now, we can, for sure, see a great advancement in Chinese society and its economy."

Jeremy Stevens, China economist in Beijing at Standard Bank-the largest in Africa-thinks Chinese policymakers are less obsessed with the GDP figure than many assume.

"They are less concerned about growth than markets might believe. Policy measures to stem the viral outbreak are not about 'juicing' growth. Indeed, measures are proving critical in keeping China's estimated 18 million small and medium-sized enterprises afloat and limiting the impact on employment through this period of disruption," he said.

"They are leaning heavily on banks to act as a buffer against stalled business activity confronting a large swath of China's private-sector companies."

However, one of the main concerns is the impact of the epidemic on the global economy, with any downturn certain to feed back into China. On March 2, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that the epidemic could deliver a major blow, halving its forecast for global growth this year from 3 percent to 1.5 percent.

In London, the Centre for Economics and Business Research also forecast on March 2 that the outbreak could cost the United Kingdom economy £500 million ($640 million) a day if a major lockdown was imposed, with non-essential employees working from home.

The outbreak came at a time when the global economy was enjoying one of its longest, if still relatively anemic, upswings. However, many economists said they expected a correction at some point.

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