日韩精品久久一区二区三区_亚洲色图p_亚洲综合在线最大成人_国产中出在线观看_日韩免费_亚洲综合在线一区

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Opinion
Home / Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Nation shows the road back from outbreak

By Robin Xing | China Daily | Updated: 2020-05-26 07:32
Share
Share - WeChat
A customer selects imported goods at a bonded commodities exhibition and trading center in Southwest China's Chongqing, on Jan 18, 2019. [Photo/Xinhua]

The novel coronavirus outbreak was first reported in China. And although Premier Li Keqiang has not set any economic growth target for this year in the Government Work Report he presented on Friday, the first country where we can really observe economic recovery is also China. So, how is the recovery going?

China adopted a three-stage approach to contain the virus and reopen the economy. The first stage was hard lockdown, which lasted about a month from late January. Most people stayed at home and non-essential services were closed.

Lockdowns give way to social distancing

Once the virus curve flattened, China entered the second stage, replacing the lockdown with social distancing measures in March. Quarantine measures were gradually relaxed to facilitate the resumption of production in the industrial sector. For example, car factories and smartphone supply chains mostly resumed production during this stage. And since workers returning to the workplace need some services, coffee shops and other food and beverage services gradually resumed operations about one month after the initial lockdown.

Yet strict social distancing guidelines remained in place so most service centers and leisure places remained suspended, meaning there was no socializing or gathering. I would call this stage "returned to work, not hanging out".

Since April, China has been in the final stage, which is soft social distancing, meaning the careful restart of some sectors of the service economy and domestic travel-including, for example, the reopening of theme parks. Children are back at school, too.

With the sequence of the three stages largely ranked by the tendency to draw people together, the manufacturing sector would recover first. And given that manufacturing is a big part of its economy, we think China could bounce back more easily than most developed economies. Looking back at the 1918 pandemic, there's a pretty striking pattern showing that regions that imposed severe lockdowns early on saw some of the largest rebounds in industrial production.

However, let us look a bit more at the difference between what's going on in manufacturing and services. High frequency data, which is daily or weekly data rather than monthly retail sales or quarterly GDP, have greater value with a large inflection-and COVID-19 has brought about the sharpest inflection in modern history. Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley's research franchise has delivered a set of high frequency data that help investors measure where the economy stands and where it is going.

Infrastructure construction demand fully recovered

What do these data tell us? In a nutshell, industrial production and infrastructure construction demand have fully recovered, but service demand is lagging. In particular, aside from the release of some pent-up demand for big-ticket items such as cars and smartphones, the travel and leisure sectors of the economy have been weak. The situation won't fully normalize until maybe the fourth quarter of this year, because there are still public health concerns about a potential second wave of infection and soft social distancing guidelines are still in place. This stage could continue for a while depending on the epidemic situation.

What can governments do to address this economic challenge? China has been trying hard to correct some of the structural imbalances in the economy since before the outbreak. But given that the nature of the COVID-19 shock on the Chinese economy is very unusual-it has hit small and medium-sized enterprises and households more than any other sector-China is not just resorting to the old playbook of boosting public investment but also has adopted a three-stage approach to policy support, which started with economic relief measures offering troubled sectors and small companies re-lending facilities and temporary tax cuts to limit corporate cash flow shortfalls.

Some manufacturing sectors in focus to resume operations

China entered the second phase in March and April with some targeted infrastructure capital spending, largely focusing on certain manufacturing sectors, which could provide key materials for economic recovery.

And with the convening of the National People's Congress annual session on Friday, China has started its third stage with direct support for SMEs and households in the form of tax rebates and fee cuts.

This is China's three-stage playbook of policy support amid the COVID-19 outbreak, which is quite different from its traditional playbook of boosting public capital expenditure.

What lesson have we learned from China on the sequence of post-pandemic economic recovery? First, there are potentially some big advantages of shutting down aggressively in the initial stage of an epidemic. The other notable takeaway is the split between manufacturing and services. The United States and Europe are far more services heavy than China. And that part of the economy could struggle the most even with massive support, which suggests a slower pace of recovery in the US and Europe relative to what we are forecasting for China.

Giving funds to SMEs for faster economic recovery

While China's sequence of economic recovery may shed some light on what we can expect from other economies, what can China learn from other countries in the time of coronavirus-induced economic recession about providing direct, full support for small businesses and households? One successful element appears to be helping companies pay employees' wages, as wages comprise a bulk of the expenditure for SMEs. If governments help the SMEs pay workers' wages, they would reduce inefficiency and fear of job loss, and limit the drop in consumption.

Denmark, for example, has been very successful in getting multiple segments of the economy, from laborers to businesses to the government, to work together. In particular, Denmark has seen a lower unemployment rate than the US and the United Kingdom. A new kind of package to help the SMEs pay their employees' wages after the conclusion of the National People's Congress session will therefore be key to China's sustainable economic recovery.

The author is chief China economist, Morgan Stanley.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
主站蜘蛛池模板: 先锋av资源在线 | 国产91福利在线精品剧情尤物 | 亚洲精品一区二区深夜福利 | 欧美日韩中文字幕一区二区高清 | 总攻调教各种受肉 | 久久国产亚洲欧美日韩精品 | 午夜直播在线 | 天天操天天摸天天爽 | 国产成人在线一区二区 | 日本一视频一区视频二区 | 国产日韩精品视频 | 国内精品久久久久影院老司 | 日韩精品av一区二区三区 | 激情亚洲视频 | 黄视频网站 | 伊人久久综合 | 毛片999| 国产在线观看一区二区 | 夜夜未满 18勿进的爽影院 | 日本免费一区二区三区视频 | 狠狠操夜夜爱 | 亚洲人人 | 91av久久 | 亚洲视频一区在线 | 欧美一级毛片免费播放器 | 成人区视频爽爽爽爽爽 | 中文字幕av亚洲精品一部二部 | 亚洲综合色婷婷在线观看 | 欧美人成在线 | 国产男女爽爽爽免费视频 | 欧美日韩精品一区二区三区在线观看 | 国内精品视频 在线播放 | 国产一区二区三区在线观看免费 | 91亚洲国产成人精品性色 | 色婷婷综合缴情综六月 | 免费播放特黄特色毛片 | 国产片欧美片亚洲片久久综合 | 成人 精品 | 婷婷色在线观看 | 日日夜夜天天人人 | 国产精品九九久久一区hh |