日韩精品久久一区二区三区_亚洲色图p_亚洲综合在线最大成人_国产中出在线观看_日韩免费_亚洲综合在线一区

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Business
Home / Business / Policies

Economic growth will post strong rebound next year, predict experts

By Chen Jia | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2020-11-26 15:00
Share
Share - WeChat
An aerial photo taken on June 21, 2018 shows the morning view of the Lujiazui area in Pudong, Shanghai. [Photo/Xinhua]

China's economic growth driven by consumption, manufacturing investment and resilient exports is expected to strongly recover next year, leading international financial groups shared their positive forecasts recently.

Their projections on the world's second-largest economy's GDP growth ranged from 7.5 to 9 percent in 2021, the fastest pace at least since 2015. The supportive policies, including monetary and fiscal measures that were launched at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic outbreak, will gradually turn into a normalized status as the coronavirus pandemic has been well controlled domestically.

Goldman Sachs shared a relatively conservative forecast among global financial giants with prediction that China's GDP growth, on a yearly basis, is likely to rebound to 7.5 percent in 2021, up from projected 2 percent this year.

The recovery will be mainly driven by household consumption and manufacturing investment. Its exports, in the meantime, are expected to stay resilient, it said.

"In China, monetary and credit policies are already normalizing," Shan Hui, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, told China Daily.

Her view was backed by the recent rise of the interbank market's seven-day repo rate, a gauge of prices of loans borrowed between commercial banks, which is mostly back to pre-COVID levels. The credit growth has also slowed from the peak in the March-to-May period.

Looking into the near future, Shan said that China's policy rates are likely to stay stable, while the credit growth may decelerate further.

In terms of fiscal policy, the Goldman Sachs economist predicted the government's on-budget fiscal deficit to narrow from 3.6 percent of GDP this year to 3 percent in 2021, although local governments' maturing bonds and refinancing demand are likely to pick up next year.

"We may see more refinancing bond issuance by local governments and some of the financing gap may be plugged by transfers from the central government," said Shan. "At the same time, cyclical upturn is helpful for government revenues and local governments have been asked to cut spending when possible."

Last week, another US-based investment bank Morgan Stanley offered a more positive forecast on China's 2021 GDP growth at 9 percent, led by a strong recovery in private consumption and global demand, with policy stimulus being phased out.

Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, said that private consumption could emerge as the key growth driver in the coming months, with a release of excess savings of Chinese residents and the overall recovery of domestic job market.

A stronger global demand and reduced risks of trade tensions would boost manufacturing investment, outweighing slower construction activity and a slightly narrowed surplus of trade of goods and services, according to Xing.

"Policymakers will likely normalize credit growth and its fiscal stance in 2021 with a full recovery in the labor market and deployment of COVID-19 vaccines in major economies," he added.

Economists also predicted that the normalization of China's monetary and fiscal policies will further elevated the interest rate differential between China and the United States, which is one of the drivers of a further appreciation of renminbi and stronger foreign exchange inflows into China next year.

Other major economies, however, are likely to maintain monetary easing and fiscal stimulus to tackle the COVID-19 shocks. And the US and European Union central banks may re-raise their policy rates as early as in 2025, Goldman Sachs' economists said.

Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
CLOSE
 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 久久草在线精品视频99 | 国产12孩岁A片被A午夜 | 一级黄片毛片 | 国产精品免费播放 | 久久久久久久久成人 | 99精品国产高清在线观看 | 欧美成人免费高清二区三区 | 日韩精品久久久久久久电影99爱 | 中国一级特黄真人毛片 | 污视频在线观看网站 | 男生插女生视频免费 | 九九久久精品 | 久草热在线视频 | 亚洲欧美日韩在线不卡 | 国产欧美一区二区视频 | 毛片站 | 亚洲天堂免费看 | 午夜不卡一区二区 | 精品久久久久久久久久 | 免费视频不卡一区二区三区 | 欧美极品在线 | 伊人蕉久影院 | 亚洲精品免费在线观看 | 中日欧洲精品视频在线 | 五月天色婷婷综合 | 青娱乐手机在线 | 欧洲精品色 | 啪一啪日一日 | 免费国产一区 | 国产一级特黄aa大片爽爽 | 成人国产mv免费视频 | 国产福利专区精品视频 | 国产在线视频一区二区 | 99视频有精品视频高清 | 99riav视频一区二区 | 奇米777视频国产 | 中文在线一区二区 | 男人的天堂久久 | 久久免费看少妇高潮A片JA | 黄色av.com| 欧美在线播放一区 |