日韩精品久久一区二区三区_亚洲色图p_亚洲综合在线最大成人_国产中出在线观看_日韩免费_亚洲综合在线一区

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Business
Home / Business / Policies

Economic growth will post strong rebound next year, predict experts

By Chen Jia | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2020-11-26 15:00
Share
Share - WeChat
An aerial photo taken on June 21, 2018 shows the morning view of the Lujiazui area in Pudong, Shanghai. [Photo/Xinhua]

China's economic growth driven by consumption, manufacturing investment and resilient exports is expected to strongly recover next year, leading international financial groups shared their positive forecasts recently.

Their projections on the world's second-largest economy's GDP growth ranged from 7.5 to 9 percent in 2021, the fastest pace at least since 2015. The supportive policies, including monetary and fiscal measures that were launched at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic outbreak, will gradually turn into a normalized status as the coronavirus pandemic has been well controlled domestically.

Goldman Sachs shared a relatively conservative forecast among global financial giants with prediction that China's GDP growth, on a yearly basis, is likely to rebound to 7.5 percent in 2021, up from projected 2 percent this year.

The recovery will be mainly driven by household consumption and manufacturing investment. Its exports, in the meantime, are expected to stay resilient, it said.

"In China, monetary and credit policies are already normalizing," Shan Hui, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, told China Daily.

Her view was backed by the recent rise of the interbank market's seven-day repo rate, a gauge of prices of loans borrowed between commercial banks, which is mostly back to pre-COVID levels. The credit growth has also slowed from the peak in the March-to-May period.

Looking into the near future, Shan said that China's policy rates are likely to stay stable, while the credit growth may decelerate further.

In terms of fiscal policy, the Goldman Sachs economist predicted the government's on-budget fiscal deficit to narrow from 3.6 percent of GDP this year to 3 percent in 2021, although local governments' maturing bonds and refinancing demand are likely to pick up next year.

"We may see more refinancing bond issuance by local governments and some of the financing gap may be plugged by transfers from the central government," said Shan. "At the same time, cyclical upturn is helpful for government revenues and local governments have been asked to cut spending when possible."

Last week, another US-based investment bank Morgan Stanley offered a more positive forecast on China's 2021 GDP growth at 9 percent, led by a strong recovery in private consumption and global demand, with policy stimulus being phased out.

Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, said that private consumption could emerge as the key growth driver in the coming months, with a release of excess savings of Chinese residents and the overall recovery of domestic job market.

A stronger global demand and reduced risks of trade tensions would boost manufacturing investment, outweighing slower construction activity and a slightly narrowed surplus of trade of goods and services, according to Xing.

"Policymakers will likely normalize credit growth and its fiscal stance in 2021 with a full recovery in the labor market and deployment of COVID-19 vaccines in major economies," he added.

Economists also predicted that the normalization of China's monetary and fiscal policies will further elevated the interest rate differential between China and the United States, which is one of the drivers of a further appreciation of renminbi and stronger foreign exchange inflows into China next year.

Other major economies, however, are likely to maintain monetary easing and fiscal stimulus to tackle the COVID-19 shocks. And the US and European Union central banks may re-raise their policy rates as early as in 2025, Goldman Sachs' economists said.

Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
CLOSE
 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 欧美天堂在线观看 | 亚洲九九 | 欧美成人激情在线 | 欧美久草视频 | av一级久久 | 俄罗斯厕所偷窥视频 | 97精品伊人久久久大香线蕉 | 久草视频网站 | 日本高清va不卡视频在线观看 | 伊人久久精品成人网 | 国产一区二区三区免费 | 国产欧美视频一区二区三区 | 99热久久精品免费精品 | 欧美精品18videosex性俄罗斯 | 精品久久一区二区 | 亚洲日本va| 日日摸夜夜添夜夜添亚洲女人 | 国产一级片 | 日本一本久 | 欧美黑人性受xxxx喷水 | 亚洲视频 欧美视频 | 很黄很色的小视频在线网站 | 亚洲高清一区二区三区 | 欧美精品在线免费观看 | 精品久久久久久蜜臂a∨ | 91一区二区三区在线观看 | 久久久久久亚洲精品 | 麻豆精品在线观看 | 日韩一区不卡 | 国产欧美一区二区精品忘忧草 | 久久久久国产精品人 | 亚洲人成一区二区三区 | 中国免费毛片 | 男女下面一进一出无遮挡着 | 亚洲一区二区三区高清 | 极品美女aⅴ高清在线观看 一级片片 | 久久九九国产精品怡红院 | 国产精品1区2区3区 另类视频综合 | 精品国产成人在线 | 亚洲精品视频久久久 | 免费观看一级特黄欧美大片 |