Despite long-term slide in US-Sino ties, joint efforts still possible, expert says

The United States and China should prepare for a long-term downturn in their relations, but they should seize opportunities for improvement when they materialize, according to an expert.

"Strategically speaking, a long-term confrontation between the two is probable," said Zhao Quansheng, a professor at the School of International Service and the chairman of the Asian Studies Research Council at American University.

"The similarity in strength sets the basis for this confrontation and the long-standing gap in thinking. The standoff between the US and China is more than the 'Who is the biggest power?' argument, but this argument gives a ladder to those who hold this strong view," Zhao told China Daily.

"Tactically speaking, there must be times of detente that keep coming. The discussion and cooperation between John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua in addressing climate change is the best example," said Zhao, referring to the top figures on climate policy in the US and China.

"When a global crisis comes, it is hoped that the two major powers, the US and China, can take their responsibilities as major powers together. It is also possible that the two countries will join hands to deal with the global crisis."

Zhao said that Beijing and Washington have their own priorities: For Beijing, the Winter Olympics are on, and the two sessions are coming up.

For Washington, it has a lot to face in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy and a partisan political split, he said.

US President Joe Biden is facing many unresolved major issues, which have caused public opinion polls on his performance to decline.

"Since the two countries face many domestic matters to deal with respectively, there are many factors to consider when dealing with US-China relations," said Zhao.

The academic said that the Biden administration has primarily maintained former president Donald Trump's China policy and has not shifted its main direction.

Zhao cited the continuing tariffs as an example.

Biden's slow response

He said Biden "has been slow to respond" on lifting the duties, which Zhao attributed to US domestic politics.

Zhao said US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had suggested that the US should reduce tariffs on Chinese goods.

More than a week ago, 140 members of Congress sent a letter to Katherine Tai, the US trade representative, calling for wider tariff exemptions for Chinese goods.

"Biden was afraid that removing tariffs on Chinese goods would lead to the Republicans saying that he was soft on China," Zhao said.

"It shows that the domestic factors of the US are holding back and constraining the Biden administration's China policy, that Biden lacks decisiveness, and that his diplomatic team is inexperienced in this area."

Zhao noted that the US' so-called diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics also stems from domestic political considerations.

He said that the world faces unprecedented change, and the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated that transition.

"As the world's first- and second-largest economies, are the US and China facing this transition jointly or in confrontation?" he said.

He said that the trade conflict had been going on for four years, but 2022 is the 50th anniversary of the Shanghai Communique, so both sides should "go back to the original intention".

Zhao recalled that on the eve of the 1972 Shanghai Communique (which stressed the global importance of the two countries working toward normalizing relations), the US and China faced many challenges from the then Soviet Union, the Vietnam War and other factors.

The situation was similar to the present; therefore, this "going back" is necessary, he said.

"Take the Taiwan question as an example. Deng Xiaoping demanded that the US break diplomatic relations, abrogate treaties and withdraw troops from Taiwan," Zhao said. "All of these reflect the need for the US and China to go back to the Shanghai Communique. However, the current US actions have frequently stepped on red lines, making the cross-Straits issue a tinderbox."

Zhao also said the US' hegemonic ideology and the concept of American exceptionalism align with the current US position in the international system.

"The US often emphasizes a rule-based global system, where, in the US view, rules are made by itself and complied (with) by others, and there is even often a double standard on compliance," he said.

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