日韩精品久久一区二区三区_亚洲色图p_亚洲综合在线最大成人_国产中出在线观看_日韩免费_亚洲综合在线一区

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語(yǔ)Fran?ais
Business
Home / Business / Finance

Expert: FX swings could shape rates

By ZHOU LANXU | CHINA DAILY | Updated: 2023-09-13 06:49
Share
Share - WeChat
A worker counts Chinese currency renminbi at a bank in Linyi, East China's Shandong province. [Photo/Xinhua]

More stimulus steps possible on back of low inflation, negative output gap

China would still have scope for more interest rate cuts in the coming months if the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, shows it is willing to tolerate and deal with more fluctuations of the renminbi exchange rate, said a leading currency expert.

Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOC International, told China Daily the country has considerable leeway to ramp up fiscal and monetary stimuli given its domestic economic condition that is characterized by low inflation and a negative output gap (where the economy's actual output is less than its potential output).

From an external perspective, however, cutting interest rates further may inevitably aggravate the downward pressure on the renminbi in the short term unless the cut can immediately improve market expectations and brighten economic prospects, said Guan, who had served as head of the Balance of Payments Department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange in the past.

"As dollar-denominated assets are high-yield assets, a widening US-China interest rate differential could still exert pressure on the renminbi even if the US Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates further," he said.

The renminbi's future movements against the greenback, according to Guan, will hinge on changes in China's economic momentum, US monetary policy, the dollar's strength and the PBOC's foreign exchange policy.

Meanwhile, financial market experts are keeping a close watch on how the PBOC will adjust its monetary policy to solidify a nascent pickup in economic momentum, amid lingering uncertainty over the US Fed's rate hikes.

Most traders said they expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged next week, but are looking forward to US inflation data to be released on Wednesday to make their predictions.

Despite the headwinds of the aggressive Fed's record interest rate hikes, the PBOC cut a key interest rate in June and August by 25 basis points in total, while using a variety of tools to prevent excessive renminbi depreciation, including allowing more foreign debt and releasing banks' foreign exchange required reserves.

After the onshore renminbi hit a 16-year low of 7.3510 per dollar on Friday, the PBOC reiterated its intention to forestall any overshooting of the exchange rate and, in a statement on Monday, said that it won't hesitate to correct any one-sided, pro-cyclical behavior.

"If previous renminbi exchange rate adjustments have fairly priced in various unfavorable factors, then the currency does not necessarily need a bottoming-out economy to stabilize," Guan said.

"Even marginal improvements in expectations would still give a significant boost to exchange rates," he said, adding that a pickup in lending figures for August has helped fuel a rally in the renminbi on Monday, when the onshore renminbi strengthened by 509 basis points to close at 7.2906 per dollar.

Echoing Guan's remarks, Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank, said the renminbi could slightly strengthen against the greenback by the end of the year.

More time is needed to judge the sustainability of recent marginal improvements in economic data, Guan said, adding that authorities' approach to tackling economic shocks now is fundamentally different from the one they had adopted in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis.

While the stimulus-led 2008 policy turbocharged short-term economic growth, it also resulted in long-term structural distortions, including debt pileup, overcapacity and asset bubbles, which the Chinese economy is still grappling with, he said.

"Therefore, fewer strong stimulus measures were launched this time," Guan said. "The main focus now is on structural adjustments, with necessary fiscal and monetary support to protect the economy from sliding out of a reasonable range. But, aggressive moves like increasing fiscal deficits or issuing special treasury bonds are avoided."

This approach will help the country to stay true to its commitment to high-quality development and lay a more solid foundation for long-term growth; yet, the price would be lower growth in the short term, Guan said.

He further said recent measures taken to promote structural adjustments and nurture innovation-led new growth engines are crucial for China to fend off any potential risk of going down Japan's path to "the lost decades".

"The Chinese economy is not facing the kind of risks that Japan had encountered, but we need to stay vigilant against the possibility of entering that sort of situation and take preemptive measures," Guan said.

Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
CLOSE
 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 99在线视频精品 | 欧美最猛性xxxxx亚洲精品 | 亚洲网站免费观看 | 91精品一区二区三区久久久久久 | 国产精选一区二区 | 999www视频免费观看 | 久久av一区 | 国产无圣光高清一区二区 | 久久久婷婷一区二区三区不卡 | 国产精品久久久一区二区三区 | 日韩成人免费观看 | 在线观看日韩 | 欧美成人私人视频88在线观看 | 免费一级特黄3大片视频 | 国产换爱交换乱理伦片 | 精品久久九九 | 久久久久久久久久久久久久久久久久久 | 国产精品成人一区二区 | 欧美成人影院在线观看三级 | 成人二区 | 亚洲天天干 | 国产成人最新毛片基地 | 亚洲人性生活视频 | 国内精品伊人久久久久7777人 | 欧美黄网在线 | 成人国产精品视频 | 视频毛片| 一区二区福利视频 | 国产精品视频久久 | 天天干天天操 | 欧美日韩在线视频观看 | 久久精品一区二区三区四区 | 香蕉国产在线观看免费 | 成人激情综合网 | 欧美国产精品久久 | 亚洲欧美一区二区三区久本道 | 久久日本精品国产精品白 | 狠狠干网 | 国产精品成人在线 | 国产乱码精品一区二区三上 | 亚洲国产欧洲精品路线久久 |