China's civil aviation sector logged a record number of passenger flights in 2025, marking a shift from the volatile post-pandemic rebound to a period of normalized, high-quality expansion, industry data show.

According to a 2025 development report released recently by aviation data provider VariFlight, Chinese mainland airlines operated 5.37 million flights last year, a 2.96 percent increase from 2024. Total booked seat numbers also climbed to a historic high of 935.8 million, up 2.48 percent year-on-year.

Analysts said the single-digit growth, compared to the nearly 9 percent surge seen in 2024, indicates a maturing market where supply is being carefully calibrated to meet demand.

The International Air Transport Association said global passenger demand and capacity growth remain positive, but are now expanding at more typical levels compared with the sharp rebounds seen in 2023 and early 2024, as markets return to pre-COVID-19 comparisons.

Analysts at China Merchants Securities said the slowdown is a sign of normalization rather than weakness, adding that carriers are prioritizing a balance between bringing aircraft back into service and maintaining stable load factors.

International and regional routes remained the main driver of expansion. Flights on these routes rose nearly 16 percent year-on-year to 545,700 trips, returning to levels close to 2019, while the domestic market saw a modest 1.67 percent increase.

Against the backdrop, South Korea emerged as the busiest overseas destination by flight volume from the Chinese mainland and the momentum is expected to accelerate as the Spring Festival holiday approaches in mid-February.

South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported that two-way passenger traffic on South Korea-China routes reached 16.8 million trips in 2025, a 22 percent jump year-on-year driven by visa-free travel measures and competitive airfares, citing data from South Korea's transport ministry and aviation association.

South Korea is expected to secure its spot as the top international destination for Chinese mainland travelers in the new year, buoyed by favorable visa policies and short-haul travel demand. According to Flight Master, a travel services platform, from Dec 29 to Jan 4, flight volume on China-South Korea routes during the one-week period reached 1,012, recovering to 97.2 percent of pre-pandemic levels, the highest recovery rate among all major international sectors.

Data from flight travel app Umetrip show that outbound flight bookings for the Spring Festival period from Feb 15 to 23 had already topped 610,000 as of Jan 6, with Seoul, Bangkok, Singapore and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region among the top choices for Chinese mainland holidaymakers.

In contrast, industry insiders said outbound demand to Japan has been affected by diplomatic friction. Following the erroneous remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding China's Taiwan, Chinese authorities issued travel advisories which prompted a shift in consumer sentiment.

Flights from China to Japan fell to about 82 percent of 2019 levels in November, and dropped further to around 66 percent in the first week of this year, according to Flight Master.

Wang Zhan, a director of Global Infrastructure and Project Finance Group at Fitch Ratings, said the reduction in China-Japan services is unlikely to weigh significantly on the medium-term recovery of China's aviation sector. The impact has been concentrated on specific leisure-oriented routes, particularly secondary hubs with less diversified demand.