For an orderly multipolar world, every country’s development ought to be conditioned on the improvement of others’ development

Since the 1990s, with the end of the Cold War and the rapid advance of modern science and technology, nearly all countries have been swept into the tide of economic globalization. Cross-border transport and communications have become unprecedentedly convenient; production and transaction costs have fallen sharply; and goods, services, capital, labor and information now move across borders on a massive scale. The interdependence among countries and regions has reached an unprecedented level in human history. Globalization has improved the efficiency of global resources allocation and expanded the gains from trade. Yet in recent years, globalization has faced mounting headwinds and constraints, and its trajectory has entered a more turbulent phase.

Today, economic globalization confronts multiple challenges, most notably the far-reaching impacts of unilateralism and protectionism. As a result, many multilateral mechanisms and platforms have been sidelined, and the global economy is increasingly characterized by fragmentation and bloc formation.

At the same time, geopolitics has exerted a profound influence on interstate relations. The politicization of economic issues has become a defining feature of the current globalization era, reflected in the growing weaponization of trade and finance.

From the perspective of the international political economy, these challenges stem both from the deep consequences of globalization over the past several decades and from shifting power balances among major countries.

First, while globalization has boosted wealth and interdependence, its benefits have been unevenly distributed — both across countries and within groups in different societies. Groups that have seen little improvement, or even losses, have sought to express their grievances through national policies.

Second, such discontent has been amplified, giving rise to extreme protectionism, nationalism and populism.

Third, as major power dynamics have shifted, some countries have abandoned the very multilateral rules they once helped create in order to suppress competitors and preserve their dominance.

Another major challenge to globalization is climate change. Progress in clean energy and the low-carbon transition has been slow and uneven, and the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has impacted the global green development. This will have complex implications for global governance, the resolution of global problems and the future direction of world development.

Throughout history, challenges and opportunities have often coexisted. Broadly speaking, opportunities can be divided into two categories.

The first is the emergence of a “new reality”. This new reality has two dimensions — one proactive, the other passive. The proactive dimension refers to technological progress driven by human effort, which is further reducing transaction costs, including those related to transport and communications, while accelerating the accumulation of human capital — especially in fields closely linked to advances in artificial intelligence. The passive dimension relates to global challenges that bear directly on human survival such as climate change. These challenges, while fraught with risks, also contain opportunities — but they can only be seized through collective action, requiring countries to cooperate rather than act alone.

The second category comprises long-term forces currently constrained by short-term policies but ultimately destined to drive globalization forward. These include economic laws underpinning specialization, trade and the division of labor, as well as fundamental economic principles and institutions validated in both theory and practice. Under some Western countries’ pursuit of their own national interests, these long-term forces have been temporarily suppressed. Yet history suggests that disorder will eventually give way to correction, and that closure leads to stagnation — these structural forces will ultimately reassert themselves.

In this context, the Belt and Road Initiative represents a valuable opportunity to unleash these long-term dynamics. Its core objective is to advocate an equal and orderly multipolar world and a universally beneficial and inclusive economic globalization, advance the building of a community with a shared future for humanity and ultimately achieve lasting peace and shared prosperity. The high-quality development of the BRI offers a viable pathway forward in the globalization era.

But the fundamental solution to today’s global challenges lies in replacing zero-sum and negative-sum thinking with a positive-sum approach based on mutual benefit and win-win cooperation.

Different civilizations and cultures hold distinct understandings of cooperation. In the Chinese tradition, cooperation implies equality, mutual learning and ultimately mutual benefit. This idea can be traced back to The Analects of Confucius: “A humane person helps others establish what he himself wishes to establish and achieve what he himself wishes to achieve.” In economic terms, this suggests that one’s own welfare improvement must be conditioned on the improvement of others’ welfare. This concept has been termed “Confucian improvement”.

By contrast, Western economics and sociology emphasize “Pareto improvement”, in which at least one party benefits without anyone else being worse off. While desirable, this is insufficient, as it does not ensure that all members of society benefit. “Confucian improvement” goes a step further and better aligns with contemporary development needs. One of the most direct ways to achieve “Confucian improvement” is through free trade, which generates mutual gains.

History shows that equality, reciprocity and mutual benefit are prerequisites for shared prosperity — whether among nations, groups or individuals. At this crossroads of human history, China’s choice is clear and steadfast: Through continuous, incremental “Pareto improvements” — and especially “Confucian improvements” — China seeks to move closer to what may be called “Confucian efficiency”. This means advocating an equal and orderly multipolar world and inclusive economic globalization, and ultimately realizing a community with a shared future for humanity. China believes this vision resonates with the aspirations of most countries and peoples worldwide.

The author is an academic member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the dean of the School of International Politics and Economics at the University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.