China's A-share market is at a critical turning point as recovering economic fundamentals and fresh capital inflows drive a shift from zero-sum game toward incremental allocation, with a more resilient and stable capital market ecosystem taking shape, according to participants at a CITIC Securities forum.

China has set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5 percent to 5 percent, a range that aligns with the country's long-term development goals for 2035 while underscoring a stronger focus on the quality of growth, said Zhu Yexin, a member of the Party committee, an executive member and head of the research department of CITIC Securities. The target, he noted, leaves greater room for structural adjustment, risk prevention and reform.

Zhu added that according to the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) for national economic and social development, building a modern industrial system and consolidating the foundation of the real economy has been placed at the top of national strategic tasks, aimed at a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone.

New quality productive forces — showcased by artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace and biotechnology — are moving from conceptual exploration to large-scale industrial application, reshaping the trajectory of economic and market growth. More encouragingly, the global expansion of Chinese companies and the internationalization of the renminbi are creating strong strategic synergies, opening up vast potential for a systematic revaluation of Chinese assets, Zhu said in his opening remarks at the 2026 Spring Capital Market Forum of CITIC Securities.

The forum, which was held in Beijing from Thursday to Friday, brought together senior experts, scholars, industry representatives to exchange views, providing a comprehensive outlook on the global macroeconomic landscape and investment strategies under the current environment.

Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, said China's fiscal spending is expected to expand moderately in 2026. As progress continues in addressing local government debt, local fiscal capacity is also likely to improve, allowing policy support for the economy to be sustained and strengthened. This is expected to help drive real GDP growth to around 4.9 percent for the year.

Taking into account base effects and the pace of policy implementation, economic growth in 2026 may follow a V-shaped trajectory, Ming said. With inflation continuing to pick up, nominal GDP is also expected to gain momentum, with its growth rate likely to exceed that of real GDP and potentially reach around 5 percent.

Supported by policy stimulus, economic recovery and low base effects, credit growth is expected to increase year-on-year in 2026. Policymakers are likely to step up countercyclical adjustments to boost financing demand in the real economy and maintain reasonable growth in credit. New yuan loans under the total social financing measure are expected to reach about 17.5 trillion yuan ($2.53 trillion) for the year, he added.

Against this macro backdrop, Qiu Xiang, chief A-share strategist at CITIC Securities, said geopolitical volatility is coinciding with a critical juncture for market indexes, making spring a key window for rebuilding investor confidence and setting market direction.

He stressed that a recovery in corporate profit margins will be crucial for sustaining the next phase of the A-share bull market.

Amid rising global energy and commodity costs and tightening financial conditions, Qiu said low valuations and pricing power will be the most important factors shaping investment decisions. He recommended focusing on sectors such as chemicals, nonferrous metals, power equipment and new energy, while increasing exposure to undervalued areas including insurance, brokerages and utilities.

jiangxueqing@chinadaily.com.cn