日韩精品久久一区二区三区_亚洲色图p_亚洲综合在线最大成人_国产中出在线观看_日韩免费_亚洲综合在线一区

Chinese consumer spending, the likeliest victim if share prices dive, will only take a minor hit, while overseas markets have learned quickly to live with a volatile Shanghai bourse, they said.

"The slump will not have a significant impact on the (Chinese) economy in the short term," said Feng Yuming, a Shanghai-based economist with Orient Securities.

"Consumption won't be affected much unless the market takes a really deep plunge."

One common impact of stock market gains is what economists describe as the "wealth effect," the desire of investors to spend more once their assets increase in value, as they feel richer.

The flip side is that when their assets lose value, they will also tend to spend less.

However, the World Bank echoed the views of a range of economists when it said last week this was unlikely to be a major factor if the stock markets plunge in China, because only a tiny portion of total wealth is tied up in stocks.

"The impact on the real economy via reduced consumption and investment is likely to remain limited," a World Bank report said, pointing out the value of all shares held by individuals amounts to just one sixth of China's economy.

Other statistics confirm this conclusion. Chinese stock investment makes up only five percent of national savings, with 95 percent still kept in cash and bank accounts, according to Societe Generale.

JP Morgan also pointed out in a recent research note the Shanghai A-shares market had historically not been a good leading, or lagging, indicator of the Chinese economy.

"In the past decade, we have noticed the apparent divergence in performance between the real sector and stock markets in China," JP Morgan said.

"Caution is warranted before jumping to any conclusion about the economy based on the stock market performance."

Another factor to take into account is that even if the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 30 percent from its current level of around 4,000 points, share prices would still only decline to their values in January.

Similarly, many economists dismiss concerns that a significant correction in China's stock market would send shock waves around the world, according to Glenn Maguire, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Societe Generale.

"Markets are now viewing what happens in (the Chinese equity market) as purely a domestic phenomenon that is not seen as significantly derailing economic growth in China, which remains far more important for global markets," Maguire told a forum in Beijing.

Maguire noted that China's A-share market, which surged 130 percent last year and is up more than 50 percent in 2007, holds little sway over other financial markets -- with A-share investors generally not holding equity portfolios in other markets.

The world got a taste of what could be around the corner when stocks fell 6.5 percent on Wednesday -- the steepest one-day decline in more than three months -- after the government announced a tripling of a transaction tax.

While a one-day fall of nearly nine percent on Chinese markets in February sparked a global rout, the world reacted much more calmly on Wednesday, with Wall Street responding to good domestic data to hit a seven-year record high.

Analysts are also pointing to other non-doomsday scenarios in China if shares dive.

"A potential significant correction in the stock market may result in the withdrawal of liquidity from the stock markets and into the property markets," said Citigroup analyst Shen Minggao.

"We could see a rise in property prices as a result."