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China's economy has bottomed out: expert

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-06-23 21:09

BEIJING: Statistics showed the decline in China's economy has bottomed out, said an article posted on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Tuesday.

A series of macro-control policies launched since the fourth quarter last year helped prevent the economy from slumping and China's economy now showed positive changes with the positive factors accumulating, said the article by Guo Tongxin from the Department of Comprehensive Statistics in the NBS.

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The bottom of this round of economic downturn in China should be at the fourth quarter in 2008 and the first quarter this year, based on the year-on-year GDP changes, the article said.

GDP growth was 9 percent in the third quarter in 2008, then slumped to 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter and further down to 6.1 percent in the first quarter in 2009.

GDP in the second quarter this year was expected to be almost 8 percent judging from the current GDP growth and main economic indexes in April and May, the article said.

The quarter-on-quarter GDP changes proved the bottom should be at the fourth quarter last year, the article said.

GDP growth was 2 percent up in the third quarter in 2008 from the previous quarter, 0.1 percent up in the fourth quarter, 1.5 percent in the first quarter this year and was expected to be 2 percent in the second quarter, the article said.

Figures on industrial output showed the bottom should be from November in 2008 to February in 2009, the article said.

Industrial output was rebounding since March and the figure in May was almost at the same level as in October last year. Industrial output was 8.3 percent up in March year on year, 7.3 percent up in April and 8.9 percent up in May.

Industrial output in the fourth quarter last year was down 3.4 percent from the previous quarter, but the figure in the first quarter this year was 3.2 percent up quarter on quarter.

Steel production began expanding in December last year and reached 1.85 million tonnes in May, the top level since last year.

Daily power generation began growing from March this year with figures topping 9 billion kilowatt-hours in March, April and May and almost 10 billion kilowatt-hours in the first ten days of June.

Despite these positive indices, China's economy faced obstacles to maintaining a stable economic rebound because of recession in most parts of the world, sluggish demand for Chinese products, production overcapacity in some industries and possible inflation, the article said.