日韩精品久久一区二区三区_亚洲色图p_亚洲综合在线最大成人_国产中出在线观看_日韩免费_亚洲综合在线一区

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
China / Society

Yearender: Predictions for 2016 through 20 questions

(China Daily) Updated: 2015-12-31 07:53
Yearender: Predictions for 2016 through 20 questions

Song Yu

3. Will the renminbi depreciation continue?

Song Yu, chief economist at Goldman Sachs for China

Yes. Despite top policymakers reiterating their commitment to maintaining exchange rate stability and policy to keep the renminbi largely steady, uncertainty over China's foreign exchange policy and the sustainability of the Chinese currency's value remains high.

We (at Goldman Sachs) see the case for a weaker renminbi given the challenges of domestic growth and deflation and the potentially large pent-up demand of Chinese consumers for foreign assets, although we do not believe that the renminbi is greatly above fair value.

After all, China shows few symptoms of currency over-valuation. For example, China's trade surplus is still strong and Chinese exports' share in the global market has remained quite stable. But letting the exchange rate float freely could conceivably lead to large currency overshooting (much more weakening), depending on the prevailing market environment.

Our baseline expects a moderate 3 to 4 percent depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar in 2016.

This view envisages what could be characterized as a second-best reform scenario-namely, that a favorable window of opportunity for reform will arrive and the authorities will take advantage of that to transition the renminbi regime to a market-based (clean float) one.

Yearender: Predictions for 2016 through 20 questions

Gao Ting

4. Will the Chinese stock market see a steady boom?

Gao Ting, head of China strategy at UBS Securities Co

No. We (at UBS Securities) forecast a 1 percent profit decline for listed companies in the A-share market in 2016, compared with the estimate of 4 percent growth earlier this year. Corporate revenue will be under pressure because of weakened demand and economic deflationary pressure next year.

We expect the CSI 300 Index to be traded flat around 3,700 points by the end of 2016 (no big rise from the market at the end of 2015). The price-earning ratio is predicted to be 13.5.

Rising debt defaults by companies will hurt the asset quality of banks and reduce investors' risk appetite. In addition, based on experiences, the market does not perform well when there are strong expectations for a weaker renminbi.

But sectors such as consumption, healthcare and information technology will continue to outperform the rest of the market next year.

The weak growth momentum will weigh heavily on overall market sentiment, and the A-share market will be more liquidity-driven next year when Chinese policymakers are expected to launch more measures to stimulate growth.

The top leaders may strengthen fiscal and credit supports on infrastructure construction, but they are unlikely to launch a new round of aggressive stimulus policies.

Highlights
Hot Topics
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 日韩精品视频在线播放 | 久热久操| 人人操日日干 | 久久夏同学国产免费观看 | 亚洲欧洲精品视频在线观看 | 丁香婷婷电影 | 国产一区二区三区四 | 国产精品美乳一区二区免费 | 天天干天天操天天爽 | 夜夜爽99久久国产综合精品女不卡 | 男女爽爽视频 | 一级特黄aaa大片大全 | 欧美成人生活片 | 久久久久无码国产精品一区 | 午夜在线小视频 | 日韩欧美在线观看视频一区二区 | 青青久热| 久草免费在线视频 | 狠狠躁日日躁夜夜躁A片小说按摩 | 久久亚洲欧美日韩精品专区 | 老司机精品视频个人在观看 | 久久精品视频网站 | 亚洲天堂免费看 | 特级毛片8级毛片免费观看 亚洲精品不卡 | 亚洲在线一区二区 | 成人网18网站| 欧美精品国产第一区二区 | 亚洲视频在线免费看 | 天天干网| 天天看天天摸色天天综合网 | 色综合久久丁香婷婷 | 91免费国产精品 | 成人av免费在线观看 | 在线观看免费视频日韩 | 片在线观看免费观看视频 | 香蕉视频在线观看免费国产婷婷 | a三级毛片| 一级毛片,一级毛片 | 欧美自拍电影 | 亚洲精品久久久久一区二区 | 奇米视频777 |