For decades, Chinese students have been the largest group of international students in the United States. But recent data reveals a significant shift: the number of Chinese students studying in the US has been declining since the 2019-20 academic year.

In the 2023-24 academic year, for the first time, Indian students outnumbered their Chinese counterparts, with 331,602 Indian students enrolled in US higher education institutions — a 23.3 percent increase from the previous year — compared with 277,398 Chinese students, a 4.2 percent decline, according to the nonprofit Institute of International Education.

Beaton offered a different perspective on the numbers, suggesting that Chinese student enrollment is either increasing or holding steady at top US universities.

"What we're seeing in the data is that the number of students attending top-tier schools remains quite consistent — it's not declining," he said.

In fact, at some institutions, those numbers are even growing, Beaton said. However, he said the significant drop is occurring among the long tail of other universities, and that's where the real decline is happening.

The reason for this trend is twofold. First, the return on investment for certain degrees is much lower — it's harder to secure top jobs, and the cost of education is high.

For some families, especially those from higher-income backgrounds, that type of degree is almost a luxury, akin to "tourism education", rather than a necessity, said Beaton.

On the other hand, the interest in the top 40 US schools remains robust, with intense demand, because they offer a strong return on investment for families, he said.

One of the key factors contributing to the decline in Chinese international students in the US was the government's "China Initiative," which had targeted Chinese students and scholars. Beaton believes the impact is still very limited for Chinese students applying to undergraduate programs in the US.

"There is certainly sensitivity if you're a Chinese citizen and you enroll in a US PhD program focused on advanced robotics. Some employers work with sensitive technologies related to space weapons and space exploration, where this sensitivity applies," he said.

"But for undergraduate degrees, there's really no issue. You can attend colleges and study anything you like — applied math, physics, computer science, AI — and, in fact, these are the most popular majors among my Chinese students."

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