Growing storm looms over Hong Kong's economy
Updated: 2014-08-27 07:16
By Zhou Bajun(HK Edition)
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While Hong Kong is focusing on how the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPSCS) will decide methods for the Chief Executive (CE) election in 2017 and for the Legislative Council (LegCo) election in 2016, the economic situation is increasingly uncertain. Recently, Hong Kong officials in charge of financial and monetary affairs warned about growing threats to the city's economy.
First, Financial Secretary John Tsang, in a personal blog entry posted on Aug 10, warned that political problems coupled with an economic slowdown would bring about a "perfect financial and economic storm". It might provide opportunities for international speculators.
Then a day later, on Aug 11, Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Chief Executive Norman Chan Tak-lam also commented. He warned in the HKMA bulletin that Hong Kong's financial system could come under increasing pressure when the United States raises interest rates. This is because there might be capital flight from emerging economies - including Hong Kong.
Also on Aug 11, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung warned investors not to get burnt by "hot money" flowing in ahead of a cross-border scheme between the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets. He said a gloomy economic outlook combined with fears of a US interest rate hikes could mean this hot money would quickly leave Hong Kong.
However, some analysts and commentators disagree with these senior officials.
For example, lawyer Keane Shum said on Aug 11 in the South China Morning Post (SCMP) that he believed "Occupy Central" wouldn't shut down Central. He argued this was because of modern digital business practices and the city's network of elevated walkways. He noted that tourists could go through Central without ever setting foot outdoors at ground level. Funds can be wired electronically. Contracts can be signed and exchanged via email and business can be done by conference calls.
But this is hardly a situation that is desirable: With Central crowded and obstructed by thousands of protesters. Furthermore, Shum has underestimated the destructive effects "Occupy" will have on Hong Kong's reputation as an international financial hub and on the city's political and social stability. He has forgotten that the combination of these things could hurt Hong Kong's economy.
Another example of this sort of misplaced thinking came from Richard Harris, chief executive of Port Shelter Investment Management. In an article on Aug 15 in the SCMP, Harris accused John Tsang and Norman Chan of talking down the market at an inappropriate time. Harris said: "Tsang's article, 'The Perfect Storm', is a classic central banker strategy of talking the market down in a roaring bull market to cool things off." And "Norman Chan Tak-lam was reported as saying that higher interest rates in the United States may encourage capital to move out of the region and back to the US. One senior Hong Kong finance leader being bearish is unfortunate. Two may be careless, unless they are sending a signal to the markets to lowball expectations. Central bank utterances must be treated with great respect; it is a dangerous game to make statements that may be seen as market signals."
But Harris' analysis is incorrect. Although the secretary for financial services and the treasury was, to some extent, making a verbal intervention in the stock market, Tsang and Norman Chan were both offering sensible, rational forecasts.
On Aug 15 the government released statistics showing the city's economy had further slowed to a mere 1.8 percent growth, year-on-year, in real terms in the second quarter of 2014. This marked the slowest growth since the third quarter of 2012. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-by-quarter comparison, real GDP dipped by 0.1 percent in the second quarter. This is after growth of 0.3 percent in the preceding quarter. Because of the worse-than-expected performance in the first half of 2014 and increasing downside risks, the government lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2014. Next year, given the likelihood of the world economy slowing down and the prospect of US interest rates rising, Hong Kong's economy will confront more problems.
So this city faces a unique challenge: How to deal with looming political and economic uncertainty. After four sessions involving Zhang Xiaoming, director of the Central People's Government's Liaison Office in the HKSAR, talking with opposition lawmakers, the impasse over constitutional reform remains. It is safe to predict that the NPCSC will firmly defend its stance in its decision on the Chief Executive election in 2017 by universal suffrage.
Benny Tai Yiu-ting, initiator of "Occupy", threatened on Aug 14 to finally launch the campaign and paralyze Central with protests in September. We don't need to wait for the global economy to decelerate and US interest rates to rise. A catastrophic blow to Hong Kong's financial system and economy may occur as early as the end of 2014 or early 2015.
The author is a veteran current affairs commentator.
(HK Edition 08/27/2014 page9)