距離美國(guó)大選日還有不到一個(gè)月的時(shí)間，兩黨候選人在辯論中使出各種招數(shù)突出自己、詆毀對(duì)方。據(jù)說，從上世紀(jì)90年代中期開始，美國(guó)大選過程中就開始出現(xiàn)一些以影響民意為目的的民調(diào)，英文叫做push poll。

Push poll is an opinion poll whose real purpose is to influence people's opinions rather than to collect information about them.

Push poll指以民調(diào)之名行影響民意之實(shí)的民意調(diào)查，這種調(diào)查的真正目的不是收集人們的意見，而是影響人們的看法，即“推手民調(diào)”。

In essence, a push poll is something approaching a smear campaign masquerading as an opinion poll. A push poll typically involves phoning very large numbers of voters and, in the guise of doing a survey to find out how certain pieces of 'information' may affect their voting preferences, feeding them false or damaging information about a particular candidate. The idea then is to 'push' them away from any rival candidate and steer them towards the candidate that the caller supports.

從本質(zhì)上來看，“推手民調(diào)”更像是偽裝成民意調(diào)查的“抹黑大戰(zhàn)（smear campaign）”。這種調(diào)查通常會(huì)電話聯(lián)絡(luò)大量的選民，假裝調(diào)查哪些“信息”會(huì)影響選民的投票決定，而在此過程中向選民灌輸有關(guān)某個(gè)候選人的虛假或破壞性信息。這樣做的目的是將選民從競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手那里“推開”，轉(zhuǎn)而支持調(diào)查方這邊的候選人。

The essential difference between a push poll and a valid opinion poll, is that the latter merely attempts to elicit opinions, whilst the former aims to change and influence them. In a push poll, large numbers of respondents are contacted, but little or no effort is made to collect and analyze response data because no-one is really interested in this information once the phone call is over, the main aim having been to negatively influence the targeted candidate.

“推手民調(diào)”和真正的民調(diào)之間的本質(zhì)區(qū)別是，民意調(diào)查只是為了收集民意，而“推手”調(diào)查是為了改變和影響民意。在“推手”調(diào)查中，大量受訪者會(huì)接到調(diào)查信息，但是并沒有人做后續(xù)的信息收集和分析工作，因?yàn)樵谡{(diào)查電話掛斷以后，就沒有人再對(duì)那些信息感興趣了。“推手”調(diào)查的主要目的是對(duì)某個(gè)特定候選人產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。

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