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Zhao Jinping

Research Report No 7, 2000

The issue of balance of international payments equilibrium is one of the four major frontier subjects in the study of macro-economy. The financial crisis in East Asia that broke out in 1997 has demonstrated once again the degree of importance of this issue in influencing the process of economic development and social stability of a developing country or even a whole region. The excellent situation of balance of international payments equilibrium in China since the 1980s is not only a practical demonstration of State policy of opening to the outside world and the achievements in economic development, but also an important factor contributing to the stable and lasting growth of domestic economy. As is required by the trend of economic globalization and the situation of development of domestic economy, China will enter a completely new era of opening-up, and balance of international payments equilibrium as a centralized reflection of domestic and foreign economic relations will experience even more completed changes during the coming Tenth Five-Year Plan period. In order to further clarify our basic objectives for and train of policy thinking about balance of international payments equilibrium, it is necessary to make an analysis and evaluation of the major characteristics and influences of balance of international payments equilibrium in China since the 1980s.

I. Trends and Characteristics of China’s Balance of International Payments Equilibrium since 1982

Generally speaking, overall balance, basic balance, balance of current accounts, and balance of commodity trade constitute the four important aspects of contents of statements of the balance of international payments. The balance of current accounts and the balance of commodity trade reflect the competitive edges of domestic commodities and services, while basic balance is a kind of comprehensive balance integrating current accounts and long-term capital to reflect the long-term trend of balance of international payments equilibrium. Overall balance is the sum total of the balance of current accounts after deduction of errors and omissions and the balance of capital accounts (refers to capital and financial accounts in statements of the balance of international payments), it reflects mainly the results of comprehensive balance of international payments. From 1982 to 1998, the balance of current accounts and the balance of trade in the statements of balance of international payments of China experienced a transition from mainly adverse balance of trade to mainly favourable balance of trade. Since the 1990s, China has basically maintained a comparatively big favourable balance. China saw an adverse balance in basic balance only in 1985, and maintained favourable balance in all other years. As for overall balance, China suffered an adverse balance for three years running from 1984 to 1986. Since the 1990s, however, no adverse balance has occurred except in 1992. It can be seen from this that China has maintained a fairly good situation of surplus in international payments (see Table 1).

Table 1 Changes in international payments between 1982 and 1998 Unit: million US dollars 

Year	1982-85	1986-90	1991-95	1996-98	1982-98
Balance of current accounts	527	-2859	17044	73239	87951
Balance of goods trade	-6870	-12571	28612	112371	121542
Balance of capital and financial accounts	887	18325	99122	54728	173062
Balance of long-term capital	7145	34361	111421	129465	282392
Balance of short-term capital	-6258	-16036	-12299	-74737	-109330
Basic balance	7672	31502	128465	202704	370343
Errors and omissions	-455	-6287	-52420	-54087	-113249
Overall balance (1)	1414	15466	116166	127967	261013
Overall balance (2)	959	9179	63746	73880	147764

Notes: Basic balance = balance of current accounts + balance of long-term capital; overall balance (1) = balance of current payments + balance of capital accounts; overall balance (2) = balance of payments + balance of capital accounts + errors and omissions. Source: Calculated by this author on the basis of the figures published in the 1999 Yearbook of Statistics compiled by the State Administration of Foreign Exchanges .

Since 1982, changes in the international payments of China have had the following characteristics:

First, the marked improvement in the balance of international payments equilibrium since the 1990s

Between 1982 and 1989, payments under current accounts suffered adverse balance for four years, with the deficit in 1985 hitting USD 11.42 billion, a figure equal to 38 percent of the amount of the loan extending party under current accounts in the year. The sum total in the Seventh Five-Year Plan period was an adverse balance. Since the start of the 1990s, however, the situation has been improved remarkably. Except in 1993 when an adverse balance occurred, favourable balance has been reported in all the other years, and the size of favourable balance has been growing rapidly. According to statistics, the accumulative payments under current accounts during the Eighth Five-Year Plan period soared from an adverse balance of USD 2.86 billion in the Seventh Five-Year Plan period to a favourable balance of USD 17.04 billion. In the first three years of the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, the accumulative favourable balance hit USD 66.28 billion, equal to 81.6 percent of the total favourable balance achieved between 1982 and 1998.

Payments under capital and financial accounts suffered adverse balance for three years running between 1982 and 1984. Although adverse balance has also occurred in three years including in 1998 since the start of the 1990s, the size has become even smaller. Accumulated, big favourable balances were achieved in both the Eighth Five-Year Plan period as a whole and in the first three years of the Ninth Five-Year Plan period. In addition, overall balance (1) and basic balance have maintained favourable balance since 1986 and 1985 respectively.

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