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New Changes in China's Regional Economic Development Trend
2015-08-12
By Liu Yong, Department of Development Strategy and Regional Economy of DRC
Research Report No 14, 2013 (Total 4263)
In 2011, regional economic growth declined at large in China, and in most regions the economic growth all underwent a deceleration after experiencing acceleration. In 2011, economies of various provinces, regions and municipalities grew by a total of 11.8% (a weighted average as per GRP), being 1.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous year (being 2.5 percentage points higher than the national statistics); GRP of various provinces, regions and municipalities added up to 51.8194 trillion yuan (being 4.5321 trillion yuan higher than the national statistics); the per capita GRP of various provinces, regions and municipalities came to a total of 38,777 yuan (being 3,680 yuan higher than the national statistics).Following is the analysis of China's regional economic development pattern, causes of change and trend of evolvement.
I. Evolvement and Features of Regional Economic Growth Pattern
In 2011, an overview of regional economic development in Chinaindicated that economic growth in China's central and western regions was faster than that in the eastern region, the focus of regional economic growth and aggregate moved westward continuously, the relative regional gap continued to shrink and the regional economic aggregate and levels were improved continually. The economic growth and per-capita levels of Tianjin all ranked top in China, becoming a new flagship city in terms of regional economic development in China. Guangdong's economic aggregate remained the first in China.
1. China's regional economic growth was characterized by the fact that economic growth was faster in central and western regions, but slower in the eastern regions of China while the far western region, the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River and Tianjin witnessed the fastest growth
By region, economic growth of China's central and western regions surpassed that of east China in 5 years running by 2011 and the surpassing growth continued to enlarge, with the former being 2.59 percentage points higher than the latter; the far western region saw a faster growth than the grand central region, forming again a sequencing of far western region, grand central region and new eastern region, and the growth difference between the eastern and western regions continued to widen. All these facts demonstrate that the European debt crisis has a serious impact on China's eastern region, and that the central government's intensifying investment efforts in Xinjiang is pushing forward the local economic growth. It can be seen from the "7＋1" integrated economic areas that regions where economic growth is faster than the average of all provinces and regions are in turn the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the far western region, the middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River, the northeastern region and the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River and, regions where economic growth is slower than the average of all provinces and regions are in turn the coastal areas of east China, those of southeast China and those of north China. It suggests that the European debt crisis has led to a reduced export volumefor Chinaand produced a huge impact on China's coastal areas. Coastal areas in east China, among others, have been worst hit by the crisis (coastal areas of southeast China were worst hit in 2008). (See Table 1).
Table 1 Pattern and Change of the Macroeconomic and Integrated Economic Areas during 2002~2011
|
|
Growth rate(%) |
Comparison to the average of all provinces and regions(times) |
||||||||||
|
|
2002 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2002 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
National statistics |
9.1 |
14.2 |
9.6 |
9.2 |
10.4 |
9.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average of all provinces, regions and municipalities |
10.91 |
14.24 |
11.77 |
11.62 |
13.15 |
11.82 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
|
New eastern region |
11.40 |
14.19 |
11.44 |
11.02 |
12.58 |
10.80 |
1.04 |
1.00 |
0.97 |
0.95 |
0.96 |
0.91 |
|
Central and western regions |
10.05 |
14.33 |
12.33 |
12.61 |
14.07 |
13.39 |
0.92 |
1.01 |
1.05 |
1.09 |
1.07 |
1.13 |
|
Grand central region |
9.95 |
14.11 |
12.04 |
12.46 |
14.12 |
13.37 |
0.91 |
0.99 |
1.02 |
1.07 |
1.07 |
1.13 |
|
Far western region |
11.08 |
16.13 |
14.71 |
13.84 |
13.69 |
13.55 |
1.02 |
1.13 |
1.25 |
1.19 |
1.04 |
1.15 |
|
Northeast region |
10.09 |
14.13 |
13.38 |
12.60 |
13.69 |
12.50 |
0.92 |
0.99 |
1.14 |
1.08 |
1.04 |
1.06 |
|
Coastal areas of north China |
11.23 |
13.68 |
11.52 |
11.61 |
12.50 |
11.17 |
1.03 |
0.96 |
0.98 |
1.00 |
0.95 |
0.95 |
|
Coastal areas of east China |
11.91 |
14.38 |
11.03 |
10.42 |
11.97 |
9.82 |
1.09 |
1.01 |
0.94 |
0.90 |
0.91 |
0.83 |
|
Coastal areas of southeast China |
11.75 |
14.63 |
10.75 |
10.14 |
12.87 |
10.60 |
1.08 |
1.03 |
0.91 |
0.87 |
0.98 |
0.90 |
|
Middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River |
10.48 |
14.10 |
11.86 |
10.40 |
13.18 |
12.45 |
0.96 |
0.99 |
1.01 |
0.89 |
1.00 |
1.05 |
|
Middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River |
9.72 |
14.23 |
12.28 |
13.68 |
14.93 |
13.92 |
0.89 |
1.00 |
1.04 |
1.18 |
1.14 |
1.18 |
|
Middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River |
9.65 |
13.73 |
11.63 |
12.64 |
13.26 |
13.36 |
0.88 |
0.96 |
0.99 |
1.09 |
1.01 |
1.13 |
|
Far western region |
11.08 |
16.13 |
14.71 |
13.84 |
13.69 |
13.55 |
1.02 |
1.13 |
1.25 |
1.19 |
1.04 |
1.15 |
Note: Division of the three new major districts and the "7+1" integrated economic areas is as follows: the new eastern region includes the four major economic areas such as the three provinces of northeast China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shandong Area, Shanghai-Jiangsu-Zhejiang Area and Guangdong-Fujian-Hainan Area, including 13 provinces and regions; the grand central region includes the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River (Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Shanxi and Henan), the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River (Sichuan, Chongqing, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi and Anhui) and the middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River (Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi), including 14 provinces and regions; the far western region includes the Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet, including 4 provinces and regions. Due to their limited economic scale, these provinces and regions can be viewed as a grand economic area. Thus comes the division of the three new major districts and the "7+1" integrated economic areas.
Source: China Statistical Abstract, 2012. The national statistics in 2011 were adjusted according to the preliminary calculation.
By provinces and regions, in 2011 the average economic growth rate of various provinces and regions amounted to 11.82%, being 1.33 percentage points lower than the previous year on the whole. Except Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Gansu and Xinjiang, the growth rates of other provinces were all lower than those of the previous year (that of Hainan, among others, saw the biggest reduction of 4.0 percentage points). The growth rates of Tianjin and Chongqing all ranked first by 16.4% (being 1.0 percentage point lower than that of Tianjin in the previous year). Beijing experienced the slowest growth, being 8.1% (being lower than that of the previous year and ranking the last together with Shanghai with the growth rates of the two cities being 2.2 percentage points),down 1.0 percentage point on the whole by an enlarged 1.2 percentage points. The ratio between provinces with their growth rates higher or lower than the average stood at 23:8, suggesting that the totaled growth rate for various regions was mainly determined by a small number of critical provinces with their growth rates lower than the average. The sequencing of the growth rates of various regions changed considerably. Among them, growth rates of 12 provinces went up and Guizhou and Yunnan undergoing the biggest rise ranked the 14th, and 11 provinces saw their growth rates declining, with Hainan ranking the 18th as a result of its major growth rate decline; and 6 provinces ranked the same as previously.
Tianjin, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou and Inner Mongolia saw their economic growth rates rising above 14.0%. Despite the slowdown of its economic growth, Tianjin remained on national top; Chongqing saw its growth rate declining slightly over the previous year at the same rate as Tianjin with the top ranking; the growth rate of Sichuan went down and then rose by two rankings; Guizhou saw its ranking forwarded by 14 places (Both Sichuan and Yunnan witnessed the highest rise in their rankings), being one of the few provinces whose growth rate surpassed that of the previous year; Inner Mongolia witnessed the rise of its growth by 1 ranking and remained amongthe provinces with the top growth rate. All these demonstrate that the focus of China's regional economic growth continues to move northward and westward.
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