The word from usually damp Manchester is that the new Old Trafford pitch for the third Test is another unseasonal dust bowl.

The new wicket square has been laid 90 degrees to the old one, but whether that will lead to a similar turnaround in Australia's fortunes is doubtful.

England has shown off its depth by adding Chris Tremlett to its pace squad and Monty Panesar as its second spinner.

Panesar's presence will cause Australia to think about playing both its spinners, modest as they are.

Nathan Lyon might replace Ashton Agar or join him on a turning pitch.

Unless the Australians have smuggled Fawad Ahmed into Lancashire, leg-spin duties will go to part-timer Steven Smith, if fit, and perhaps even Dave Warner.

Time is running out for Australia - and for Lyon. He has played 22 Tests for 76 wickets at 33.18 apiece. Not bad figures early in a career but one nagging concern is that he hasn't dismissed enough top-order batsmen.

The other worry is that English batsmen grow up eating offspinners almost as often as they eat a fry-up for breakfast.

With James Pattinson out with injury, the selectors could opt for under-rated seamer Jackson Bird. He is the most miserly of the Australian pacemen, applies constant pressure and has the knack of taking important wickets.

The other possible change is Warner for one of the younger batsmen, probably Phillip Hughes. The hot-or-cold Warner can be a match-winner and if ever the Australians are going to gamble, this Test is the time to do it. Unless the tourists win in Manchester, England will retain the Ashes.

If Warner plays, it might be a smart move to get him in early.

Yes, his top-order colleagues tend not to hang around too long anyway, but Warner is more likely to get going against pace than spin.

Warner says coach Darren Lehmann has told him he will bat in the middle order if and when he next plays. But in this match, if he comes in when Graeme Swann is in full flight, Warner will have only one answer: to swing his way out of trouble. If he has 20 or 30 on the board, he'll have his eye in and his confidence up.

Warner might be better off at No 4, with captain Michael Clarke in his favorite spot at 5 and Smith, who plays spin well, at 6.

There are lots of ifs and buts and possible changes to the Australian team. That's not ideal but in a struggling side that needs to work some magic, a few smart moves must be made.

This third Test is do-or-die for Australia. It's time the players lifted, none more so than their leader, the most talented and best-paid among them - Clarke.

Not long ago Clarke was earning his millions by making double centuries at will. His side desperately needs one now.

Mark Ray is a China Daily copy editor. He played first-class cricket for NSW and Tasmania and reported on international cricket for 15 years. You can contact him at [email protected]

(China Daily 08/01/2013 page22)