A cargo ship carrying about 65,000 metric tons of Argentine wheat — set to soon arrive in China — may open a new trade route that growers and shippers on both sides say could grow quickly, as China looks to diversify supply sources and Argentina hunts for new export markets.

Argentina's Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries called the shipment "a new milestone in commercial relations between the two countries".

The cargo, loaded at COFCO International's terminal in Timbues, Santa Fe Province, was the first bulk commercial shipment of Argentine wheat to China since 1997.

At a send-off ceremony in December, China's Ambassador to Argentina Wang Wei said the launch marked the "opening of a new chapter" in agricultural trade cooperation. China would continue expanding high-level opening-up and work with Argentina to promote economic and social development, Wang said.

Emilce Terre, head of the Directorate of Information and Economic Studies at the Rosario Board of Trade, Argentina's leading grain and commodities exchange, said the first sailings at the end of last year were only a starting point.

"The final month of 2025 saw the first shipments," Terre said, noting four vessels have already been recorded carrying nearly 160,000 tons of Argentine wheat to China.

The previous peak of wheat exports to China was in 1989, totaling 1.05 million tons.

"We believe the potential is even greater than that record," Terre said. She tied that optimism to demand trends and changes on the supply side.

China is — and is expected to remain for a long time — the world's leading wheat consumer, she said, noting that Argentina has boosted output from 10 to nearly 30 million tons over the past decades.

The new flow from Argentina comes as China's wheat imports remain sensitive to price swings, geopolitics and weather risks in key supplier markets.

In a statement in December, COFCO framed the shipment as a new corridor between the two countries.

Terre said, "Although China supplies most of its domestic consumption with its own production, its market size always makes it an attractive destination."

She underscored the importance of diversification. China's imports currently draw heavily from a small set of producers, including Australia and Canada.

"Having another major partner can reduce the production risks of being dependent on one or two producing regions globally," she said.

Seasonality is another selling point. Argentine wheat harvest cycles run opposite to those in the Northern Hemisphere, which can help buyers smooth out procurement across the year, particularly when weather or logistics disrupt other routes.

Argentina is among the world's major grain exporters, with the Rosario region in Santa Fe Province acting as the country's main hub for agricultural shipments. Terre said Argentina can expand exports without straining domestic supply in strong crop years.

"In a harvest year with record production and exports, Argentina has ample capacity to meet whatever external demand for wheat China may bring," she said.

China has long been a key buyer of Argentine soybeans and beef, but wheat adds a new pillar, she said.

"Besides the historic weight of soybeans and beef in Argentine exports to China, and the new entrant, wheat, the corn market has also been open for nearly two years," she said. Argentine corn is sold widely around the world and is known for high commercial quality.

Argentina could also offer China "a wide spectrum of competitive, high-quality agro-industrial products, such as poultry, pork, legumes, among others", Terre said.

The writer is a freelance journalist for China Daily.