China's strategic emphasis on cultivating "new quality productive forces" within the framework set forth by its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) draft outline presents fertile ground for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to engage in co-creation, navigate complexities, and enhance collective resilience, said a Thai expert.

In an era marked by deepening global economic fragmentation and escalating technological rivalry, Arm Tungnirun, director of the Chinese Studies Center at the Institute of Asian Studies, Chulalongkorn University, argued that Thailand and fellow ASEAN member states must reassess entrenched assumptions regarding globalization, competition, and developmental paradigms.

A prevalent misconception is the belief that current geopolitical and economic upheavals are merely transitory and that a return to the erstwhile global order is imminent, he said.

"The global framework has undergone a fundamental transformation. The coming years usher in an extended epoch of fragmentation, likely to span decades. For nations such as Thailand, the imperative is not solely to manage disruption, but to reconfigure national and regional strategies in alignment with a fundamentally altered global landscape," Arm said.

Given these dynamics, Arm underscored the necessity for a paradigm shift — from competition to collaborative creation. He suggested that ASEAN's strategic advantage lies in positioning itself as a hub for cooperation, integration, and mutual value generation.

"ASEAN is distinctively poised to adopt this strategy. Its proximity to China, intricate production networks, diverse political landscapes, and burgeoning consumer markets furnish the region with unique structural advantages. ASEAN has the capacity to function as a bridge — linking systems, standards, and innovation ecosystems for mutual gain," he said.

Arm noted that the swiftness and scope of China's strategic maneuvers within the ASEAN region have been significantly underestimated. The technological metamorphosis in China is advancing at an unprecedented pace compared to previous phases of its development.

He said that strategic competition between China and the United States has elevated technology to a matter of national exigency, prompting a substantial redirection of capital in China toward high-tech sectors and foundational research."Signals from China's forthcoming five-year plan indicate a transformation centered on technology-intensive sectors, deeply embedded in regional value chains and characterized by swift execution.

The effects extend beyond China's borders, altering production networks throughout the region. In this context, speed is as crucial as scale,"Arm said.

For Thailand and ASEAN, this transformation unveils a dual reality. "The disruptive impact will be profound, particularly for industries unprepared for swift technological advancement," he said. Simultaneously, significant opportunities abound — contingent upon strategic adaptation, he added, highlighting insights from China's 15th Five-Year Plan regarding potential growth areas.

The plan is anticipated to accelerate the development of high-quality productive forces — a framework centering on emerging future industries such as quantum technology, 6G communications, embodied artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, nuclear energy, and fusion technology.

"Integral to this transformation will be the integration of these general technologies within existing industrial frameworks, influencing our daily lives underpinned by China's innovative capabilities, robust productivity, and cost efficiency,"Arm said. "Thus, the pertinent question is: Are we prepared to embrace these changes?"

For ASEAN nations, the strategic discourse pivots from rivalry with China in frontier sectors — a scenario both economically onerous and impractical — to integration within this burgeoning ecosystem through collaborative creation. Such collaboration could manifest in joint research ventures, complementary manufacturing roles, shared applications platforms, and regionally integrated innovation networks.

"By aligning domestic capacity-building initiatives with China's technological trajectory, ASEAN countries can ascend the value chain while preserving strategic autonomy," Arm said.

yangwanli@chinadaily.com.cn